Orbital decay is a gradual decrease of the distance between two bodies at their closest approach (the periapsis) over many orbital periods. These orbiting bodies can be a planet and its satellite, a star and any object orbiting it, or components of any binary system. If left unchecked, the decay eventually results in termination of the orbit when the smaller object collision the surface of the primary; or for objects where the primary has an atmosphere, the smaller object burns, explodes, or otherwise breaks up in the larger object's atmosphere; or for objects where the primary is a star, ends with incineration by the star's radiation (such as for ). Collisions of stellar-mass objects are usually accompanied by effects such as and detectable gravitational waves.
Orbital decay is caused by one or more mechanisms which absorb energy from the orbital motion, such as fluid friction, gravitational anomalies, or electromagnetic effects. For bodies in low Earth orbit, the most significant effect is atmospheric drag.
Due to atmospheric drag, the lowest altitude above the Earth at which an object in a circular orbit can complete at least one full revolution without propulsion is approximately 150 km (93 mi) while the lowest perigee of an elliptical revolution is approximately 90 km (56 mi).
Where R is the distance of the spacecraft from the planet's origin, αo is the sum of all accelerations projected on the along-track direction of the spacecraft (or parallel to the spacecraft velocity vector), and T is the Keplerian period. Note that αo is often a function of R due to variations in atmospheric density in the altitude, and T is a function of R by virtue of Kepler's laws of planetary motion.
If only atmospheric drag is considered, one can approximate drag deceleration αo as a function of orbit radius R using the drag equation below:
The orbit decay model has been tested against ~1 year of actual GPS measurements of VELOX-C1, where the mean decay measured via GPS was 2.566 km across Dec 2015 to Nov 2016, and the orbit decay model predicted a decay of 2.444 km, which amounted to a 5% deviation.
An open-source Python based software, ORBITM (ORBIT Maintenance and Propulsion Sizing), is available freely on GitHub for Python users using the above model.
Where G is the gravitational constant, ME is the mass of the central body and m is the mass of the orbiting satellite. We take the derivative of the orbital energy with respect to the radius.
The total decelerating force, which is usually atmospheric drag for low Earth orbits, exerted on a satellite of constant mass m is given by some force F. The rate of loss of orbital energy is simply the rate at the external force does negative work on the satellite as the satellite traverses an infinitesimal circular arc-length ds, spanned by some infinitesimal angle dθ and angular rate ω.
The angular rate ω is also known as the Mean motion, where for a two-body circular orbit of radius R, it is expressed as:
and...
Substituting ω into the rate of change of orbital energy above, and expressing the external drag or decay force in terms of the deceleration αo, the orbital energy rate of change with respect to time can be expressed as:
Having an equation for the rate of change of orbital energy with respect to both radial distance and time allows us to find the rate of change of the radial distance with respect to time as per below.
The assumptions used in this derivation above are that the orbit stays very nearly circular throughout the decay process, so that the equations for orbital energy are more or less that of a circular orbit's case. This is often true for orbits that begin as circular, as drag forces are considered "re-circularizing", since drag magnitudes at the Apsis (lower altitude) is expectedly greater than that of the Apsis, which has the effect of reducing the mean eccentricity.
+ Sample orbit lifetime for a larger satellite (2025). 9780195162059, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780195162059 |
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Orbital decay thus involves a positive feedback effect, where the more the orbit decays, the lower its altitude drops, and the lower the altitude, the faster the decay. Decay is also particularly sensitive to external factors of the space environment such as solar activity, which are not very predictable. During Solar maximum the Earth's atmosphere causes significant drag up to altitudes much higher than during solar minima.
Atmospheric drag exerts a significant effect at the altitudes of , and other crewed Earth-orbit spacecraft, and satellites with relatively high "low Earth orbits" such as the Hubble Space Telescope. Space stations typically require a regular altitude boost to counteract orbital decay (see also orbital station-keeping). Uncontrolled orbital decay brought down the Skylab space station, and (relatively) controlled orbital decay was used to de-orbit the Mir space station.
for the Hubble Space Telescope are less frequent due to its much higher altitude. However, orbital decay is also a limiting factor to the length of time the Hubble can go without a maintenance rendezvous, the most recent having been performed successfully by STS-125, with Space Shuttle Atlantis in 2009. Newer are in much higher orbits, or in some cases in solar orbit, so orbital boosting may not be needed. The Hubble Program – Servicing Missions – SM4
Examples of satellites undergoing tidal orbital decay are Mars' moon Phobos, Neptune's moon Triton, and potentially the exoplanet TrES-3b.
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